a tricky signal – playing hide and seek?

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Hi Stacey, all

a colleague of mine sent me the following question. Although I have been working with XmR and statistics for a while, I am a bit baffled.
In the time-series, we have a flat-lining performance for 19 weeks in a row (measures are meandering around the central line). At point 48 we have the start of a long run where 8points in a row are below the central line. Upon recalculation of the central line from point 48 onwards however, a ‘signal’ at point 45 becomes visible. How should we interpret this ‘signal’ at point 45? It was not visible until after we recalculated the central line at point 48….
Look forward to some enlightenment 🙂

Elke